Auto Techs - How bad is buying used cars in the future going to be?

I have been a shade tree mechanic since the late 80’s. Went to tech school in 88. Left before I could finish because I was needed on the family ranch. I started working on peoples cars in my spare time making extra money. I always had one in the shop and at least 2 in the yard waiting. I quit doing that because I wanted more free time. I have never taken any of my own cars to a shop for repairs and have not had any formal training since tech school. A few things I know over the years. The old cars were good solid cars but were not without flaws. They required more maintenance and cost more to run in general. When they started using computers to control the cars people got scared of them and won’t work on them. The newer cars are in many ways easier to fix, pull codes and start testing sensors for the systems giving trouble. Everything monitors and controls everything else. In the 70’s and 80’s 100,000 miles was about the end of the life for the car. Now it is common to see 250,000 miles on cars still running strong. But for those of us that like the old cars, they are getting hard to find. The old cash for clunkers program took away our old parts cars. For the last 10 years or so I have been back to working on vehicles on my spare time and have enough work to stay busy. I am cheaper than the shops but more than that I work on older cars. The shops and new mechanics don’t know how. Ask a recent tech school grad to rebuild a carb, they won’t have a clue. I went to a parts store last year to get a rebuild kit for a starter. The counter kid told me you can’t rebuild them, you replace them. I have rebuilt many! So I asked him for the price of a starter he asked if I wanted a new one or a rebuilt one. As time passes the old cars will become harder and harder to find. Regulations on fuel consumption will become more of an issue which will impact used cars. The push and possible requirement to switch to electric cars will make people hang onto the old cars longer. The electric cars are being pushed as maintenance free. They claim the money saved on oil changes and fuel offsets the cost of cars. Service and information I have seen on electric cars suggest changing batteries every 2 years at a cost of around $20,000. I am sure this will change with technology. So future used cars will involve checking the age of batteries.
 
I'm surprised to see so much hand-wringing and technical denial on a web site filled with people who work on and modify technology all the time! Technology always evolves, and civilization has not gone down the tubes because of it. Some of the doomsday arguments make no sense - some of you need to quit jumping to conclusions and stand back and evaluate rumors before you repeat them. Especially old rumors that have been long disproven, and those that may be true in other countries but are unlikely to occur in our country due to our different culture and economics.

Yes there will be adoption of new technology, but old technology will phase out over a long period of time. Odd how people with little trust in politicians think that politicians will outlaw technology that lobbyists pay them to support.

As electric cars become more common, there is less pollution emitted from cars overall so the environmentalists will be happier – and will cause less problems. More wind and solar produced power will also help this. Also, with more electric cars there will be lower demand for gasoline – which leaves more of that limited commodity for traditional cars to use.

Will people be able to work on today’s cars thirty years from now? Probably. They can still work on 1980s cars that had the first computers. Mechanics will be able to modify today’s cars just like they’ve always modified yesterday’s cars. Unless you are a racer who merely buys parts and bolts them on, you already know you are capable of dealing with new technology and finding solutions for hard-to-find parts.
 
But don't forget, with more electric cars, until all electric power comes from nuclear, solar and wind, in some combination, all electric cars do with regard to emissions is what is called "Stack Shifting" - the emissions come from the stack of the power plant instead of the exhaust of the car. The emissions are still there, they just come from a different source, and that won't change for a lot of years.

Then there is always the problem with much increased use of electric cars that the press seldom mentions - the U.S. doesn't have the power grid to support really large increased use of electric cars, and, again, won't for a bunch of years. All the the benefits of electric cars (and they are many, IF an electric car can meet your transportation needs) come at a price, and the public deserves to know what that price will be.

Before my wife died, I bought her, because she drove a demo and really liked it, a Mercury Mariner Hybrid. I have to say, that was one great little vehicle - significant use of the electric propulsion, which gave super mileage for the size and weight of the vehicle, and the battery always had sufficient charge, due to the internal combustion engine running when needed. And for those of you who have never driven an electric, coming off the line at a stop sign or red light is quite an experience - those beasts have gobs of torque off the line, so the stop light Grand Prix is a whole new experience and you don't need to spin the tires to get fierce acceleration at around town speeds. Probably not why most people get an electric or a hybrid, but a nice bonus. :)
 
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